The Belval Belvaux 0–3 Swift Hesperange

The Belval Belvaux

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Swift Hesperange

10/1/2023

Cup · 2nd RoundStade FC The Belval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

The Belval Belvaux19%

×Draw17%

Swift Hesperange64%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The Belval BelvauxExpected goals in this matchSwift Hesperange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.83

The Belval Belvaux

1.52

Swift Hesperange

2.83

Swift Hesperange creates 86% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

2.38

creates per match

3.67

2.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

The Belval Belvaux

2.38

Swift Hesperange

3.67

allows per match

The Belval Belvaux

2.00

Swift Hesperange

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Belval Belvaux ↓

Swift Hesperange →

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

The Belval Belvaux or draw

36%

The Belval Belvaux or Swift Hesperange

83%

Draw or Swift Hesperange

81%

Winning margin

The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals

78%

The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals

45%

The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals

20%

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals

94%

Swift Hesperange 2+ goals

77%

Swift Hesperange 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)

23%

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

The Belval Belvaux at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

The Belval Belvaux attack 2.38 + Swift Hesperange defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swift Hesperange attack 3.67 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

The Belval Belvaux scores more

19%

level

17%

Swift Hesperange scores more

64%

Swift Hesperange at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff