Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

The Belval Belvaux vs Sandweiler — Cup 2020

The Belval Belvaux
The Belval Belvaux
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sandweiler
Sandweiler
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStade FC The Belval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

The Belval Belvaux39%
×Draw20%
Sandweiler41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Belval Belvaux
2.19
Sandweiler
2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.38
Sandweiler
2.50

allows per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.00
Sandweiler
2.00

finishing

The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par
Sandweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Belval Belvaux ↓

Sandweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

The Belval Belvaux or draw
59%
The Belval Belvaux or Sandweiler
80%
Draw or Sandweiler
61%

Winning margin

The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+
22%
Sandweiler wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals
89%
The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals
64%
The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals
37%
Sandweiler 1+ goals
89%
Sandweiler 2+ goals
65%
Sandweiler 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)
49%
Sandweiler (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Belval Belvaux at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Sandweiler away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Belval Belvaux attack 2.38 + Sandweiler defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Sandweiler attack 2.50 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

The Belval Belvaux scores more
39%
level
20%
Sandweiler scores more
41%

Sandweiler at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sandweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: The Belval Belvaux 5–0 Sandweiler

The Belval Belvaux beat Sandweiler 5-0 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade FC The Belval in Belvaux.