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The Belval Belvaux vs Norden — Cup 2020

The Belval Belvaux
The Belval Belvaux
FT
2 – 3
Norden
Norden
9/9/2020CupCup · 1st RoundStade FC The Belval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

The Belval Belvaux50%
×Draw20%
Norden31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Belval Belvaux
2.35
Norden
1.83

The Belval Belvaux creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.38
Norden
1.67

allows per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.00
Norden
2.33

finishing

The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par
Norden+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Belval Belvaux ↓

Norden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

The Belval Belvaux or draw
69%
The Belval Belvaux or Norden
80%
Draw or Norden
50%

Winning margin

The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+
30%
Norden wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals
90%
The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals
68%
The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals
41%
Norden 1+ goals
84%
Norden 2+ goals
54%
Norden 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)
62%
Norden (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Belval Belvaux at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Norden away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Belval Belvaux attack 2.38 + Norden defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.35

Norden attack 1.67 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

The Belval Belvaux scores more
50%
level
20%
Norden scores more
31%

The Belval Belvaux at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "The Belval Belvaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: The Belval Belvaux 2–3 Norden

Norden beat The Belval Belvaux 3-2 in Cup on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade FC The Belval in Belvaux.