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The Belval Belvaux vs Ehlerange — Cup 2020

The Belval Belvaux
The Belval Belvaux
FT
4 – 0
Ehlerange
Ehlerange
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStade FC The Belval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

The Belval Belvaux72%
×Draw14%
Ehlerange14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Belval Belvaux
3.56
Ehlerange
1.63

The Belval Belvaux creates 118% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.38
Ehlerange
1.25

allows per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.00
Ehlerange
4.75

finishing

The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par
Ehlerange+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Belval Belvaux ↓

Ehlerange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

The Belval Belvaux or draw
86%
The Belval Belvaux or Ehlerange
86%
Draw or Ehlerange
28%

Winning margin

The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+
53%
Ehlerange wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals
97%
The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals
86%
The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals
67%
Ehlerange 1+ goals
80%
Ehlerange 2+ goals
48%
Ehlerange 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)
83%
Ehlerange (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Belval Belvaux at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Ehlerange away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Belval Belvaux attack 2.38 + Ehlerange defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.56

Ehlerange attack 1.25 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

The Belval Belvaux scores more
72%
level
14%
Ehlerange scores more
14%

The Belval Belvaux at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "The Belval Belvaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: The Belval Belvaux vs Ehlerange

The Belval Belvaux beat Ehlerange 4-0 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade FC The Belval in Belvaux.