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The Belval Belvaux vs AS Jeunesse Esch — Cup 2020

The Belval Belvaux
The Belval Belvaux
FT
0 – 3
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
10/3/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundStade FC The Belval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

The Belval Belvaux15%
×Draw14%
AS Jeunesse Esch71%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Belval Belvaux
1.50
AS Jeunesse Esch
3.31

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 121% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.38
AS Jeunesse Esch
4.63

allows per match

The Belval Belvaux
2.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.63

finishing

The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par
AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Belval Belvaux ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

The Belval Belvaux or draw
29%
The Belval Belvaux or AS Jeunesse Esch
86%
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
85%

Winning margin

The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+
6%
AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals
78%
The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals
44%
The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals
19%
AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
96%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
83%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)
17%
AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Belval Belvaux at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 4.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Belval Belvaux attack 2.38 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 4.63 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

The Belval Belvaux scores more
15%
level
14%
AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
71%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: The Belval Belvaux 0–3 AS Jeunesse Esch

AS Jeunesse Esch beat The Belval Belvaux 3-0 in Cup on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade FC The Belval in Belvaux.