That Ras 1–2 Al Ramtha: Result & Stats

That Ras

FT

1 – 2

Al Ramtha

4/14/2012

League #387 · Round 20Al Karak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

That Ras29%

×Draw42%

Al Ramtha29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

That RasExpected goals in this matchAl Ramtha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.60

That Ras

0.60

Al Ramtha

0.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.60

creates per match

0.60

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

That Ras

0.60

Al Ramtha

0.60

allows per match

That Ras

0.60

Al Ramtha

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

That Ras+0.00on par

Al Ramtha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under88
Over12

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No80
Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

That Ras ↓

Al Ramtha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–030%

0–118%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–13%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (30%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

70%30%1.5

34%66%2.5

12%88%3.5

3%97%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

That Ras or draw

71%

That Ras or Al Ramtha

58%

Draw or Al Ramtha

71%

Winning margin

That Ras wins by 2+

7%

Al Ramtha wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

That Ras 1+ goals

45%

That Ras 2+ goals

12%

That Ras 3+ goals

2%

Al Ramtha 1+ goals

45%

Al Ramtha 2+ goals

12%

Al Ramtha 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

That Ras (draw refunded)

50%

Al Ramtha (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

10%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

That Ras at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Al Ramtha away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

That Ras attack 0.60 + Al Ramtha defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Al Ramtha attack 0.60 + That Ras defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 29%?"

That Ras scores more

29%

level

42%

Al Ramtha scores more

29%

That Ras at 29% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 29% does not mean "That Ras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff