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Thap Luang United vs Raj Pracha — League Cup 2021

Thap Luang United
Thap Luang United
FT
0 – 1
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
9/1/2024League CupLeague Cup · 1st Qualifying RoundKasetsart Kampangsan University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Thap Luang United10%
×Draw29%
Raj Pracha61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thap Luang United
0.34
Raj Pracha
1.29

Raj Pracha creates 279% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Thap Luang United
0.67
Raj Pracha
2.25

allows per match

Thap Luang United
0.33
Raj Pracha
0.00

finishing

Thap Luang United+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thap Luang United ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–125%
0–216%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Thap Luang United or draw
39%
Thap Luang United or Raj Pracha
71%
Draw or Raj Pracha
90%

Winning margin

Thap Luang United wins by 2+
1%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Thap Luang United 1+ goals
29%
Thap Luang United 2+ goals
5%
Thap Luang United 3+ goals
1%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
72%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
37%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Thap Luang United (draw refunded)
14%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thap Luang United at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thap Luang United attack 0.67 + Raj Pracha defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.34

Raj Pracha attack 2.25 + Thap Luang United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Thap Luang United scores more
10%
level
29%
Raj Pracha scores more
61%

Raj Pracha at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Thap Luang United 0–1 Raj Pracha

Raj Pracha beat Thap Luang United 1-0 in League Cup on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Kasetsart Kampangsan University Stadium in Kamphaeng Saen.