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Thap Luang United vs Chiangrai United — League Cup 2021

Thap Luang United
Thap Luang Unitedadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chiangrai United
Chiangrai United
K. Natthaphon 120+5' (pen)
M. Pakarapon 120+3' (pen)
A. Saengdaeng 120+2' (pen)
P. Thongkui 120+1' (pen)
O. Singthong 120+4' (pen)
M. Promsawat 120+3' (pen)
S. Thinjom 120+2' (pen)
12/27/2025League CupLeague Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Thap Luang United24%
×Draw34%
Chiangrai United42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thap Luang United
0.67
Chiangrai United
1.00

Chiangrai United creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Thap Luang United
0.67
Chiangrai United
1.67

allows per match

Thap Luang United
0.33
Chiangrai United
0.67

finishing

Thap Luang United+0.00on par
Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thap Luang United ↓

Chiangrai United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Thap Luang United or draw
58%
Thap Luang United or Chiangrai United
66%
Draw or Chiangrai United
76%

Winning margin

Thap Luang United wins by 2+
7%
Chiangrai United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Thap Luang United 1+ goals
49%
Thap Luang United 2+ goals
15%
Thap Luang United 3+ goals
3%
Chiangrai United 1+ goals
63%
Chiangrai United 2+ goals
26%
Chiangrai United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Thap Luang United (draw refunded)
36%
Chiangrai United (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thap Luang United at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Chiangrai United away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thap Luang United attack 0.67 + Chiangrai United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Chiangrai United attack 1.67 + Thap Luang United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Thap Luang United scores more
24%
level
34%
Chiangrai United scores more
42%

Chiangrai United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
P. ThongkuiPenalty
120+1'
J. EmaviweMissed penalty
120+2'
A. SaengdaengPenalty
120+2'
S. ThinjomPenalty
120+3'
M. PakaraponPenalty
120+3'
M. PromsawatPenalty
120+4'
P. PhanuwatMissed penalty
120+4'
O. SingthongPenalty
120+5'
K. NatthaphonPenalty
120+5'
A. WorawongMissed penalty
Thap
Chiangrai
A. Sooksomnuk
Manager: A. Sooksomnuk
Sirisak Yodyardthai
Manager: Sirisak Yodyardthai

Thap Luang United 0 – 0 Chiangrai United

Thap Luang United and Chiangrai United drew 0-0 in League Cup on December 27, 2025.

Goals: P. Thongkui (120+1' pen), A. Saengdaeng (120+2' pen), S. Thinjom (120+2' pen), M. Pakarapon (120+3' pen), M. Promsawat (120+3' pen), O. Singthong (120+4' pen), K. Natthaphon (120+5' pen).