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Thaon vs Amiens — Coupe de France 2018

Thaon
Thaon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Amiens
Amiens
12/9/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade Robert Sayer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Thaon26%
×Draw24%
Amiens50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thaon
1.19
Amiens
1.72

Amiens creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Thaon
1.67
Amiens
2.11

allows per match

Thaon
1.33
Amiens
0.72

finishing

Thaon+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thaon ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Thaon or draw
50%
Thaon or Amiens
76%
Draw or Amiens
74%

Winning margin

Thaon wins by 2+
11%
Amiens wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Thaon 1+ goals
70%
Thaon 2+ goals
33%
Thaon 3+ goals
12%
Amiens 1+ goals
82%
Amiens 2+ goals
51%
Amiens 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Thaon (draw refunded)
35%
Amiens (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thaon at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Amiens away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thaon attack 1.67 + Amiens defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.19

Amiens attack 2.11 + Thaon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Thaon scores more
26%
level
24%
Amiens scores more
50%

Amiens at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thaon vs Amiens

Amiens beat Thaon 1-0 in Coupe de France on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Robert Sayer in Thaon-lès-Vosges.