Thanh Hóa 1–1 Quang Nam: Result & Stats

Thanh Hóa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Quang Nam

2/23/2025

V.League 1 · Round 14Sân vận động Thanh Hóa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Thanh Hóa43%

×Draw24%

Quang Nam32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thanh HóaExpected goals in this matchQuang Nam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.35

Thanh Hóa

1.60

Quang Nam

1.35

Thanh Hóa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 49 away

1.43

creates per match

1.35

1.34

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Thanh Hóa

1.43

Quang Nam

1.35

allows per match

Thanh Hóa

1.34

Quang Nam

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thanh Hóa+0.00on par

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thanh Hóa ↓

Quang Nam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Thanh Hóa or draw

68%

Thanh Hóa or Quang Nam

76%

Draw or Quang Nam

57%

Winning margin

Thanh Hóa wins by 2+

22%

Quang Nam wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Thanh Hóa 1+ goals

80%

Thanh Hóa 2+ goals

47%

Thanh Hóa 3+ goals

22%

Quang Nam 1+ goals

74%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

39%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)

57%

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thanh Hóa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.34 · 92 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thanh Hóa attack 1.43 + Quang Nam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Quang Nam attack 1.35 + Thanh Hóa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Thanh Hóa scores more

43%

level

24%

Quang Nam scores more

32%

Thanh Hóa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Thanh Hóa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff