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Thanh Hóa vs Nam Dinh — Cup 2019

Thanh Hóa
Thanh Hóaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nam Dinh
Nam Dinh
7/4/2024CupCup · Semi-finalsSân vận động Thanh Hóa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Thanh Hóa50%
×Draw24%
Nam Dinh25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thanh Hóa
1.67
Nam Dinh
1.11

Thanh Hóa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Thanh Hóa
2.20
Nam Dinh
1.43

allows per match

Thanh Hóa
0.80
Nam Dinh
1.14

finishing

Thanh Hóa+0.00on par
Nam Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thanh Hóa ↓

Nam Dinh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Thanh Hóa or draw
75%
Thanh Hóa or Nam Dinh
76%
Draw or Nam Dinh
50%

Winning margin

Thanh Hóa wins by 2+
27%
Nam Dinh wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Thanh Hóa 1+ goals
81%
Thanh Hóa 2+ goals
50%
Thanh Hóa 3+ goals
23%
Nam Dinh 1+ goals
67%
Nam Dinh 2+ goals
30%
Nam Dinh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Thanh Hóa (draw refunded)
67%
Nam Dinh (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thanh Hóa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Nam Dinh away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thanh Hóa attack 2.20 + Nam Dinh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nam Dinh attack 1.43 + Thanh Hóa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Thanh Hóa scores more
50%
level
24%
Nam Dinh scores more
25%

Thanh Hóa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Thanh Hóa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thanh Hóa vs Nam Dinh

Thanh Hóa beat Nam Dinh 2-1 in Cup on July 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thanh Hóa in Thanh Hóa.