Than Quang Ninh 1–0 Sai Gon: Result & Stats

Than Quang Ninh

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sai Gon

4/7/2021

V.League 1 · Round 8Cẩm Phả Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Than Quang Ninh54%

×Draw23%

Sai Gon22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Than Quang NinhExpected goals in this matchSai Gon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.04

Than Quang Ninh

1.77

Sai Gon

1.04

Than Quang Ninh creates 70% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 42 away

1.67

creates per match

1.12

0.97

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Than Quang Ninh

1.67

Sai Gon

1.12

allows per match

Than Quang Ninh

0.97

Sai Gon

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Than Quang Ninh+0.00on par

Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Than Quang Ninh ↓

Sai Gon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Than Quang Ninh or draw

78%

Than Quang Ninh or Sai Gon

77%

Draw or Sai Gon

46%

Winning margin

Than Quang Ninh wins by 2+

30%

Sai Gon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Than Quang Ninh 1+ goals

83%

Than Quang Ninh 2+ goals

53%

Than Quang Ninh 3+ goals

26%

Sai Gon 1+ goals

65%

Sai Gon 2+ goals

28%

Sai Gon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Than Quang Ninh (draw refunded)

71%

Sai Gon (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Than Quang Ninh at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Than Quang Ninh attack 1.67 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Than Quang Ninh defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Than Quang Ninh scores more

54%

level

23%

Sai Gon scores more

22%

Than Quang Ninh at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Than Quang Ninh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff