Than Quang Ninh vs Ho Chi Minh — V.League 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Than Quang Ninh51%
Ho Chi Minh24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Than Quang Ninh creates 56% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 89 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Than Quang Ninh ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Than Quang Ninh at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches
Ho Chi Minh away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.51 · 89 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Than Quang Ninh attack 1.67 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59
Ho Chi Minh attack 1.06 + Than Quang Ninh defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Than Quang Ninh at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Than Quang Ninh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ha NoiHo Chi Minh CityThan Quang Ninh
Binh Duong
Sai Gon
Viettel
Song Lam Nghe An
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Quang Nam
Da Nang
Nam Dinh
Hai Phong
Thanh Hóa
Sanna Khanh HoaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Than Quang Ninh host Ho Chi Minh on Sunday, 14 March 2021 at 11:00. The match is part of the V.League 1 2019/2020 season.
Than Quang Ninh 2 – 0 Ho Chi Minh
Than Quang Ninh beat Ho Chi Minh 2-0 in V.League 1 on March 14, 2021.
Goals: Diogo Pereira (55'), Nguyễn Hải Huy (81').
The match was played at Cẩm Phả Stadium in Cua Ong.