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Thalgau vs ÖTSU Hallein — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Thalgau
Thalgau
FT
1 – 1
ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
10/26/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 13Sportplatz Thalgau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Thalgau42%
×Draw21%
ÖTSU Hallein37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thalgau
1.98
ÖTSU Hallein
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 23 away

creates per match

Thalgau
2.54
ÖTSU Hallein
1.78

allows per match

Thalgau
1.90
ÖTSU Hallein
1.43

finishing

Thalgau+0.00on par
ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thalgau ↓

ÖTSU Hallein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Thalgau or draw
63%
Thalgau or ÖTSU Hallein
79%
Draw or ÖTSU Hallein
58%

Winning margin

Thalgau wins by 2+
23%
ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Thalgau 1+ goals
86%
Thalgau 2+ goals
59%
Thalgau 3+ goals
31%
ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
84%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
55%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Thalgau (draw refunded)
53%
ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thalgau at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.90 · 82 matches

ÖTSU Hallein away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thalgau attack 2.54 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.98

ÖTSU Hallein attack 1.78 + Thalgau defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Thalgau scores more
42%
level
21%
ÖTSU Hallein scores more
37%

Thalgau at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Thalgau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Thalgau 1–1 ÖTSU Hallein

Thalgau and ÖTSU Hallein drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Thalgau in Thalgau.