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ÖTSU Hallein vs Thalgau — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
CANC
15:00
Thalgau
Thalgau
6/6/2020Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 26Union-Platz Hallein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ÖTSU Hallein53%
×Draw20%
Thalgau27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÖTSU Hallein
2.41
Thalgau
1.70

ÖTSU Hallein creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 84 away

creates per match

ÖTSU Hallein
2.54
Thalgau
1.67

allows per match

ÖTSU Hallein
1.73
Thalgau
2.27

finishing

ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par
Thalgau+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÖTSU Hallein ↓

Thalgau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

ÖTSU Hallein or draw
73%
ÖTSU Hallein or Thalgau
80%
Draw or Thalgau
47%

Winning margin

ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
33%
Thalgau wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
91%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
69%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
43%
Thalgau 1+ goals
82%
Thalgau 2+ goals
51%
Thalgau 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
66%
Thalgau (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÖTSU Hallein at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Thalgau away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.27 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÖTSU Hallein attack 2.54 + Thalgau defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.41

Thalgau attack 1.67 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ÖTSU Hallein scores more
53%
level
20%
Thalgau scores more
27%

ÖTSU Hallein at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: ÖTSU Hallein host Thalgau

June 6, 2020: ÖTSU Hallein take on Thalgau in Landesliga - Salzburg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

ÖTSU Hallein host Thalgau at Union-Platz Hallein.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.