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Thalgau vs Adnet — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Thalgau
Thalgau
FT
2 – 0
Adnet
Adnet
4/23/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 19Sportplatz Thalgau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Thalgau54%
×Draw20%
Adnet26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thalgau
2.31
Adnet
1.55

Thalgau creates 49% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 52 away

creates per match

Thalgau
2.54
Adnet
1.21

allows per match

Thalgau
1.90
Adnet
2.08

finishing

Thalgau+0.00on par
Adnet+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thalgau ↓

Adnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Thalgau or draw
74%
Thalgau or Adnet
80%
Draw or Adnet
46%

Winning margin

Thalgau wins by 2+
33%
Adnet wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Thalgau 1+ goals
90%
Thalgau 2+ goals
67%
Thalgau 3+ goals
40%
Adnet 1+ goals
79%
Adnet 2+ goals
46%
Adnet 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Thalgau (draw refunded)
68%
Adnet (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thalgau at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.90 · 82 matches

Adnet away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thalgau attack 2.54 + Adnet defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.31

Adnet attack 1.21 + Thalgau defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Thalgau scores more
54%
level
20%
Adnet scores more
26%

Thalgau at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Thalgau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thalgau vs Adnet

Thalgau beat Adnet 2-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Thalgau in Thalgau.