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Thailand W vs New Caledonia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Thailand W
Thailand W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
New Caledonia W
New Caledonia W
A. Rukpinij 90'
J. Jinantuya 73'
T. Promthongmee 28'
N. Ngosuwan 4'
4/12/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Thailand W69%
×Draw18%
New Caledonia W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thailand W
2.30
New Caledonia W
0.89

Thailand W creates 158% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Thailand W
1.85
New Caledonia W
1.00

allows per match

Thailand W
0.77
New Caledonia W
2.75

finishing

Thailand W+0.00on par
New Caledonia W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand W ↓

New Caledonia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Thailand W or draw
87%
Thailand W or New Caledonia W
82%
Draw or New Caledonia W
31%

Winning margin

Thailand W wins by 2+
45%
New Caledonia W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Thailand W 1+ goals
90%
Thailand W 2+ goals
67%
Thailand W 3+ goals
40%
New Caledonia W 1+ goals
59%
New Caledonia W 2+ goals
22%
New Caledonia W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Thailand W (draw refunded)
84%
New Caledonia W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

New Caledonia W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand W attack 1.85 + New Caledonia W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.30

New Caledonia W attack 1.00 + Thailand W defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Thailand W scores more
69%
level
18%
New Caledonia W scores more
13%

Thailand W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Thailand W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
N. Ngosuwan
28'
T. Promthongmee
73'
J. Jinantuya
90'
A. Rukpinij

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Thailand W 4–0 New Caledonia W

Thailand W beat New Caledonia W 4-0 in Friendlies Women on April 12, 2026.

Goals: N. Ngosuwan (4'), T. Promthongmee (28'), J. Jinantuya (73'), A. Rukpinij (90').