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Thailand vs Indonesia — AFF Championship 2018

Thailand
Thailand
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Indonesia
Indonesia
11/17/2018AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 3Rajamangala National Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Thailand46%
×Draw23%
Indonesia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thailand
1.85
Indonesia
1.52

Thailand creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Thailand
2.43
Indonesia
2.18

allows per match

Thailand
0.86
Indonesia
1.27

finishing

Thailand+0.00on par
Indonesia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand ↓

Indonesia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Thailand or draw
68%
Thailand or Indonesia
77%
Draw or Indonesia
54%

Winning margin

Thailand wins by 2+
25%
Indonesia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Thailand 1+ goals
84%
Thailand 2+ goals
55%
Thailand 3+ goals
28%
Indonesia 1+ goals
78%
Indonesia 2+ goals
45%
Indonesia 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Thailand (draw refunded)
59%
Indonesia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Indonesia away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand attack 2.43 + Indonesia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.85

Indonesia attack 2.18 + Thailand defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Thailand scores more
46%
level
23%
Indonesia scores more
32%

Thailand at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Thailand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF Championship: Thailand 4–2 Indonesia

Thailand beat Indonesia 4-2 in AFF Championship on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Rajamangala National Stadium (Bangkok).