Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thailand vs Congo — Friendlies 2026

Thailand
Thailand
FT
1 – 1
Congo
Congo
T. Dangda 35'
G. Makouta 59'
10/10/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3LEO Stadium (Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Thailand46%
×Draw29%
Congo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thailand
1.25
Congo
0.84

Thailand creates 49% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Thailand
1.50
Congo
0.80

allows per match

Thailand
0.88
Congo
1.00

finishing

Thailand+0.00on par
Congo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand ↓

Congo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Thailand or draw
75%
Thailand or Congo
71%
Draw or Congo
54%

Winning margin

Thailand wins by 2+
21%
Congo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Thailand 1+ goals
71%
Thailand 2+ goals
36%
Thailand 3+ goals
13%
Congo 1+ goals
57%
Congo 2+ goals
21%
Congo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Thailand (draw refunded)
65%
Congo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Congo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand attack 1.50 + Congo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Congo attack 0.80 + Thailand defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Thailand scores more
46%
level
29%
Congo scores more
25%

Thailand at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Thailand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
T. Dangda
59'
G. Makouta
90'
M. Ossete

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thailand vs Congo

Thailand and Congo drew 1-1 in Friendlies on October 10, 2019.

Goals: T. Dangda (35'), G. Makouta (59').

The match was played at LEO Stadium (Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani).