Thailand 3–2 Cambodia: Result & Stats

Thailand

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cambodia

12/20/2024

AFF Championship · Group Stage - 5Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Thailand75%

×Draw15%

Cambodia10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ThailandExpected goals in this matchCambodia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

0.93

Thailand

2.78

Cambodia

0.93

Thailand creates 199% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

2.43

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Thailand

2.43

Cambodia

1.00

allows per match

Thailand

0.86

Cambodia

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thailand+0.00on par

Cambodia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand ↓

Cambodia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Thailand or draw

90%

Thailand or Cambodia

85%

Draw or Cambodia

25%

Winning margin

Thailand wins by 2+

54%

Cambodia wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Thailand 1+ goals

94%

Thailand 2+ goals

76%

Thailand 3+ goals

51%

Cambodia 1+ goals

61%

Cambodia 2+ goals

24%

Cambodia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Thailand (draw refunded)

88%

Cambodia (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Cambodia away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand attack 2.43 + Cambodia defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.78

Cambodia attack 1.00 + Thailand defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Thailand scores more

75%

level

15%

Cambodia scores more

10%

Thailand at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Thailand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff