Thailand 2–0 Afghanistan: Result & Stats

Thailand

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Afghanistan

Patrik Gustavsson 52', 6'

3/21/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Rajamangala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Thailand57%

×Draw25%

Afghanistan19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ThailandExpected goals in this matchAfghanistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.81

Thailand

1.63

Afghanistan

0.81

Thailand creates 101% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

0.75

0.88

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Thailand

1.50

Afghanistan

0.75

allows per match

Thailand

0.88

Afghanistan

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thailand+0.00on par

Afghanistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand ↓

Afghanistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Thailand or draw

81%

Thailand or Afghanistan

75%

Draw or Afghanistan

43%

Winning margin

Thailand wins by 2+

31%

Afghanistan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Thailand 1+ goals

80%

Thailand 2+ goals

48%

Thailand 3+ goals

22%

Afghanistan 1+ goals

56%

Afghanistan 2+ goals

19%

Afghanistan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Thailand (draw refunded)

75%

Afghanistan (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Afghanistan away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand attack 1.50 + Afghanistan defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Afghanistan attack 0.75 + Thailand defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Thailand scores more

57%

level

25%

Afghanistan scores more

19%

Thailand at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Thailand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Nicholas Mickelson

Thailand · D

8.2

Match Events

6'

Patrik Gustavsson

46'

Fareed Sadat← Hamed Amiri

52'

Patrik Gustavsson↳ Nicholas Mickelson

54'

Najim Haidary

60'

Suphanat Mueanta← Worachit Kanitsribumphen

60'

Weerathep Pomphan← Channarong Promsrikaew

61'

Chanathip Songkrasin← Thanawat Suengchitthawon

65'

Suphanan Bureerat← Airfan Doloh

65'

Adam Rustami← Paiman Sultani

65'

Farhad Ali Zada← Omid Musawi

74'

Mohammad Rahimi← Rahmat Akbari

75'

Elias Dolah← Jonathan Khemdee

75'

Poramet Arjvirai← Supachok Sarachat

79'

Mahboob Hanifi← Zelfy Nazary

80'

Thomas Safari← Amanullah Sardari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ThailandAfghanistan

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots7

7Corners2

6Fouls3

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target3

5Off Target4

1Blocked0

10Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

632Total Passes412

570Accurate Passes358

90%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls3

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1