Thailand U23 1–0 Vietnam U23: Result & Stats

Thailand U23

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vietnam U23

3/28/2026

Friendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Thailand U2352%

×Draw23%

Vietnam U2325%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thailand U23Expected goals in this matchVietnam U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.25

Thailand U23

1.88

Vietnam U23

1.25

Thailand U23 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

0.50

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Thailand U23

2.25

Vietnam U23

0.50

allows per match

Thailand U23

2.00

Vietnam U23

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thailand U23+0.00on par

Vietnam U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand U23 ↓

Vietnam U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Thailand U23 or draw

75%

Thailand U23 or Vietnam U23

77%

Draw or Vietnam U23

48%

Winning margin

Thailand U23 wins by 2+

29%

Vietnam U23 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Thailand U23 1+ goals

85%

Thailand U23 2+ goals

56%

Thailand U23 3+ goals

29%

Vietnam U23 1+ goals

71%

Vietnam U23 2+ goals

36%

Vietnam U23 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Thailand U23 (draw refunded)

67%

Vietnam U23 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand U23 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Vietnam U23 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand U23 attack 2.25 + Vietnam U23 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vietnam U23 attack 0.50 + Thailand U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Thailand U23 scores more

52%

level

23%

Vietnam U23 scores more

25%

Thailand U23 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Thailand U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff