Thai Honda FC 1–1 Ubon UMT: Result & Stats

Thai Honda FC

FT

1 – 1

Ubon UMT

3/12/2016

Thai League 2 · Round 3Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Thai Honda FC56%

×Draw24%

Ubon UMT20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thai Honda FCExpected goals in this matchUbon UMT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.89

Thai Honda FC

1.69

Ubon UMT

0.89

Thai Honda FC creates 90% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.65

creates per match

0.83

0.95

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Thai Honda FC

1.65

Ubon UMT

0.83

allows per match

Thai Honda FC

0.95

Ubon UMT

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thai Honda FC ↓

Ubon UMT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Thai Honda FC or draw

80%

Thai Honda FC or Ubon UMT

76%

Draw or Ubon UMT

44%

Winning margin

Thai Honda FC wins by 2+

31%

Ubon UMT wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Thai Honda FC 1+ goals

82%

Thai Honda FC 2+ goals

50%

Thai Honda FC 3+ goals

24%

Ubon UMT 1+ goals

59%

Ubon UMT 2+ goals

22%

Ubon UMT 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)

74%

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thai Honda FC at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Ubon UMT away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thai Honda FC attack 1.65 + Ubon UMT defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ubon UMT attack 0.83 + Thai Honda FC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Thai Honda FC scores more

56%

level

24%

Ubon UMT scores more

20%

Thai Honda FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Thai Honda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff