Thai Honda FC 1–2 Trat FC: Result & Stats

Thai Honda FC

FT

1 – 2

Trat FC

2/10/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 1Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Thai Honda FC48%

×Draw25%

Trat FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thai Honda FCExpected goals in this matchTrat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.11

Thai Honda FC

1.56

Trat FC

1.11

Thai Honda FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 84 away

1.55

creates per match

1.20

1.03

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Thai Honda FC

1.55

Trat FC

1.20

allows per match

Thai Honda FC

1.03

Trat FC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thai Honda FC ↓

Trat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Thai Honda FC or draw

73%

Thai Honda FC or Trat FC

75%

Draw or Trat FC

52%

Winning margin

Thai Honda FC wins by 2+

24%

Trat FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Thai Honda FC 1+ goals

79%

Thai Honda FC 2+ goals

46%

Thai Honda FC 3+ goals

21%

Trat FC 1+ goals

67%

Trat FC 2+ goals

30%

Trat FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)

64%

Trat FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thai Honda FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thai Honda FC attack 1.55 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Thai Honda FC scores more

48%

level

25%

Trat FC scores more

27%

Thai Honda FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Thai Honda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff