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Thai Honda FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Thai Honda FC
Thai Honda FC
FT
3 – 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
8/12/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 25Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Thai Honda FC43%
×Draw26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thai Honda FC
1.43
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.19

Thai Honda FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 83 away

creates per match

Thai Honda FC
1.55
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Thai Honda FC
1.03
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Thai Honda FC+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thai Honda FC ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Thai Honda FC or draw
69%
Thai Honda FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya
74%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
57%

Winning margin

Thai Honda FC wins by 2+
20%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Thai Honda FC 1+ goals
76%
Thai Honda FC 2+ goals
42%
Thai Honda FC 3+ goals
17%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
70%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
33%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)
58%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thai Honda FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thai Honda FC attack 1.55 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Thai Honda FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
31%

Thai Honda FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Thai Honda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Thai Honda FC 3–1 Nong Bua Pitchaya

Thai Honda FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-1 in Thai League 2 on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium (Bangkok).