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Thai Honda FC vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Thai Honda FC
Thai Honda FC
FT
2 – 1
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
9/29/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 32Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Thai Honda FC44%
×Draw26%
Ayutthaya FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thai Honda FC
1.46
Ayutthaya FC
1.14

Thai Honda FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 101 away

creates per match

Thai Honda FC
1.55
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Thai Honda FC
1.03
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Thai Honda FC+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thai Honda FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Thai Honda FC or draw
70%
Thai Honda FC or Ayutthaya FC
74%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
56%

Winning margin

Thai Honda FC wins by 2+
22%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Thai Honda FC 1+ goals
77%
Thai Honda FC 2+ goals
43%
Thai Honda FC 3+ goals
18%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
68%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
32%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)
60%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thai Honda FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thai Honda FC attack 1.55 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Thai Honda FC scores more
44%
level
26%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
30%

Thai Honda FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Thai Honda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thai Honda FC vs Ayutthaya FC

Thai Honda FC beat Ayutthaya FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Minburi 72nd Anniversary Stadium (Bangkok).