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TF Exponential vs Northern City — Division One League 2025

TF Exponential
TF Exponential
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Northern City
Northern City
3/22/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

TF Exponential44%
×Draw27%
Northern City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TF Exponential
1.35
Northern City
1.04

TF Exponential creates 30% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

TF Exponential
1.07
Northern City
1.07

allows per match

TF Exponential
1.00
Northern City
1.64

finishing

TF Exponential+0.00on par
Northern City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TF Exponential ↓

Northern City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

TF Exponential or draw
71%
TF Exponential or Northern City
73%
Draw or Northern City
56%

Winning margin

TF Exponential wins by 2+
20%
Northern City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

TF Exponential 1+ goals
74%
TF Exponential 2+ goals
39%
TF Exponential 3+ goals
15%
Northern City 1+ goals
65%
Northern City 2+ goals
28%
Northern City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

TF Exponential (draw refunded)
60%
Northern City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TF Exponential at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Northern City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TF Exponential attack 1.07 + Northern City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Northern City attack 1.07 + TF Exponential defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

TF Exponential scores more
44%
level
27%
Northern City scores more
29%

TF Exponential at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "TF Exponential will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TF Exponential vs Northern City

TF Exponential beat Northern City 3-2 in Division One League on March 22, 2026.