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Textil Escudo vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
3/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Estadio Juan María Parés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Textil Escudo41%
×Draw29%
Siete Villas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Textil Escudo
1.23
Siete Villas
1.01

Textil Escudo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 91 away

creates per match

Textil Escudo
1.19
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Textil Escudo
1.03
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Textil Escudo+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Textil Escudo ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Textil Escudo or draw
70%
Textil Escudo or Siete Villas
71%
Draw or Siete Villas
59%

Winning margin

Textil Escudo wins by 2+
18%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Textil Escudo 1+ goals
71%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
35%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
13%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
64%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
27%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
58%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Textil Escudo at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Textil Escudo attack 1.19 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Textil Escudo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Textil Escudo scores more
41%
level
29%
Siete Villas scores more
30%

Textil Escudo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Textil Escudo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Textil Escudo vs Siete Villas

Siete Villas beat Textil Escudo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan María Parés in Cabezón de La Sal.