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Textil Escudo vs Selaya — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Selaya
Selaya
5/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Juan María Parés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Textil Escudo52%
×Draw26%
Selaya22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Textil Escudo
1.53
Selaya
0.88

Textil Escudo creates 74% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

creates per match

Textil Escudo
1.19
Selaya
0.73

allows per match

Textil Escudo
1.03
Selaya
1.87

finishing

Textil Escudo+0.00on par
Selaya+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Textil Escudo ↓

Selaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Textil Escudo or draw
78%
Textil Escudo or Selaya
74%
Draw or Selaya
48%

Winning margin

Textil Escudo wins by 2+
27%
Selaya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Textil Escudo 1+ goals
78%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
45%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
20%
Selaya 1+ goals
59%
Selaya 2+ goals
22%
Selaya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
71%
Selaya (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Textil Escudo at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Selaya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Textil Escudo attack 1.19 + Selaya defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.53

Selaya attack 0.73 + Textil Escudo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Textil Escudo scores more
52%
level
26%
Selaya scores more
22%

Textil Escudo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Textil Escudo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Textil Escudo vs Selaya

Textil Escudo beat Selaya 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan María Parés in Cabezón de La Sal.