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Textil Escudo vs Cartes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cartes
Cartes
5/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Juan María Parés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Textil Escudo52%
×Draw26%
Cartes21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Textil Escudo
1.48
Cartes
0.84

Textil Escudo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 91 away

creates per match

Textil Escudo
1.19
Cartes
0.66

allows per match

Textil Escudo
1.03
Cartes
1.77

finishing

Textil Escudo+0.00on par
Cartes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Textil Escudo ↓

Cartes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Textil Escudo or draw
79%
Textil Escudo or Cartes
74%
Draw or Cartes
48%

Winning margin

Textil Escudo wins by 2+
27%
Cartes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Textil Escudo 1+ goals
77%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
43%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
19%
Cartes 1+ goals
57%
Cartes 2+ goals
21%
Cartes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
71%
Cartes (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Textil Escudo at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Cartes away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Textil Escudo attack 1.19 + Cartes defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cartes attack 0.66 + Textil Escudo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Textil Escudo scores more
52%
level
26%
Cartes scores more
21%

Textil Escudo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Textil Escudo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Textil Escudo vs Cartes

Textil Escudo beat Cartes 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan María Parés in Cabezón de La Sal.