Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Texas United vs Nona — USL League Two 2018

Texas United
Texas United
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nona
Nona
Unknown 120+10' (pen), 120+9' (pen), 120+8' (pen), 120+7' (pen), 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+1' (pen), 15'
Unknown 120+9' (pen), 120+8' (pen), 120+7' (pen), 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
T. Pannholzer 55'
7/21/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsWar Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Texas United51%
×Draw21%
Nona28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Texas United
2.14
Nona
1.57

Texas United creates 36% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 32 away

creates per match

Texas United
3.09
Nona
1.97

allows per match

Texas United
1.17
Nona
1.19

finishing

Texas United+0.00on par
Nona+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Texas United ↓

Nona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Texas United or draw
72%
Texas United or Nona
79%
Draw or Nona
49%

Winning margin

Texas United wins by 2+
30%
Nona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Texas United 1+ goals
88%
Texas United 2+ goals
63%
Texas United 3+ goals
36%
Nona 1+ goals
79%
Nona 2+ goals
46%
Nona 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Texas United (draw refunded)
64%
Nona (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Texas United at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Nona away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Texas United attack 3.09 + Nona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 2.14

Nona attack 1.97 + Texas United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Texas United scores more
51%
level
21%
Nona scores more
28%

Texas United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
55'
T. Pannholzer
120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Penalty
120+2'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Missed penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+8'
Penalty
120+8'
Penalty
120+9'
Penalty
120+9'
Penalty
120+10'
Penalty
120+10'
Missed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Texas United 1 – 1 Nona

Texas United and Nona drew 1-1 in USL League Two on July 21, 2023.

Goals: ? (15', 120+1' pen, 120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+7' pen, 120+7' pen, 120+8' pen, 120+8' pen, 120+9' pen, 120+9' pen, 120+10' pen), T. Pannholzer (55').

The match was played at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, Arkansas.