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Texas United vs Mississippi Brilla — USL League Two 2018

Texas United
Texas United
PST
00:00
Mississippi Brilla
Mississippi Brilla
6/24/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 38Texas Airhogs Stadium (Grand Prairie, TX)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Texas United56%
×Draw20%
Mississippi Brilla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Texas United
2.27
Mississippi Brilla
1.44

Texas United creates 58% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 41 away

creates per match

Texas United
3.09
Mississippi Brilla
1.71

allows per match

Texas United
1.17
Mississippi Brilla
1.46

finishing

Texas United+0.00on par
Mississippi Brilla+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Texas United ↓

Mississippi Brilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Texas United or draw
76%
Texas United or Mississippi Brilla
80%
Draw or Mississippi Brilla
44%

Winning margin

Texas United wins by 2+
35%
Mississippi Brilla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Texas United 1+ goals
90%
Texas United 2+ goals
66%
Texas United 3+ goals
39%
Mississippi Brilla 1+ goals
76%
Mississippi Brilla 2+ goals
42%
Mississippi Brilla 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Texas United (draw refunded)
70%
Mississippi Brilla (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Texas United at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Mississippi Brilla away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Texas United attack 3.09 + Mississippi Brilla defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.27

Mississippi Brilla attack 1.71 + Texas United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Texas United scores more
56%
level
20%
Mississippi Brilla scores more
24%

Texas United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Texas United vs Mississippi Brilla — Match Preview

Texas United face Mississippi Brilla on June 24, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Texas United host Mississippi Brilla at Texas Airhogs Stadium (Grand Prairie, TX).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.