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Mississippi Brilla vs Texas United — USL League Two 2018

Mississippi Brilla
Mississippi Brilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Texas United
Texas United
6/17/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 37Arrow Field at Clinton High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mississippi Brilla35%
×Draw21%
Texas United44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mississippi Brilla
1.79
Texas United
2.03

Texas United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 24 away

creates per match

Mississippi Brilla
2.05
Texas United
2.50

allows per match

Mississippi Brilla
1.56
Texas United
1.54

finishing

Mississippi Brilla+0.00on par
Texas United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mississippi Brilla ↓

Texas United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mississippi Brilla or draw
56%
Mississippi Brilla or Texas United
79%
Draw or Texas United
65%

Winning margin

Mississippi Brilla wins by 2+
18%
Texas United wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mississippi Brilla 1+ goals
83%
Mississippi Brilla 2+ goals
53%
Mississippi Brilla 3+ goals
26%
Texas United 1+ goals
87%
Texas United 2+ goals
60%
Texas United 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Mississippi Brilla (draw refunded)
44%
Texas United (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mississippi Brilla at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

Texas United away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mississippi Brilla attack 2.05 + Texas United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.79

Texas United attack 2.50 + Mississippi Brilla defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mississippi Brilla scores more
35%
level
21%
Texas United scores more
44%

Texas United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mississippi Brilla vs Texas United

Texas United beat Mississippi Brilla 1-0 in USL League Two on June 17, 2022.

The match was played at Arrow Field at Clinton High School in Clinton, Mississippi.