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Texas United vs Baton Rouge LA — USL League Two 2018

Texas United
Texas United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Baton Rouge LA
Baton Rouge LA
7/2/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 14John Clark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Texas United75%
×Draw13%
Baton Rouge LA12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Texas United
3.35
Baton Rouge LA
1.31

Texas United creates 156% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Texas United
3.09
Baton Rouge LA
1.46

allows per match

Texas United
1.17
Baton Rouge LA
3.62

finishing

Texas United+0.00on par
Baton Rouge LA+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Texas United ↓

Baton Rouge LA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Texas United or draw
88%
Texas United or Baton Rouge LA
87%
Draw or Baton Rouge LA
25%

Winning margin

Texas United wins by 2+
56%
Baton Rouge LA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Texas United 1+ goals
96%
Texas United 2+ goals
84%
Texas United 3+ goals
63%
Baton Rouge LA 1+ goals
73%
Baton Rouge LA 2+ goals
38%
Baton Rouge LA 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Texas United (draw refunded)
87%
Baton Rouge LA (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Texas United at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Baton Rouge LA away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Texas United attack 3.09 + Baton Rouge LA defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 3.35

Baton Rouge LA attack 1.46 + Texas United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Texas United scores more
75%
level
13%
Baton Rouge LA scores more
12%

Texas United at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Texas United 4–0 Baton Rouge LA

Texas United beat Baton Rouge LA 4-0 in USL League Two on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at John Clark Stadium in Plano, Texas.