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Xayr vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2012

Xayr
Xayr
FT
2 – 1
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
4/22/2012Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 3Stadion im. Safarbeka Karimova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Xayr51%
×Draw27%
Khosilot Farkhor22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xayr
1.43
Khosilot Farkhor
0.85

Xayr creates 68% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Xayr
1.33
Khosilot Farkhor
1.38

allows per match

Xayr
0.33
Khosilot Farkhor
1.52

finishing

Xayr+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xayr ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xayr or draw
78%
Xayr or Khosilot Farkhor
73%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
49%

Winning margin

Xayr wins by 2+
25%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Xayr 1+ goals
76%
Xayr 2+ goals
42%
Xayr 3+ goals
17%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
57%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
21%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Xayr (draw refunded)
69%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xayr at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xayr attack 1.33 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.38 + Xayr defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Xayr scores more
51%
level
27%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
22%

Xayr at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Xayr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xayr vs Khosilot Farkhor

Xayr beat Khosilot Farkhor 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 22, 2012.

The match was played at Stadion im. Safarbeka Karimova in Khuroson.