Istiqlol 2–2 Khatlon: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

2 – 2

Khatlon

9/18/2019

Vysshaya Liga · Round 15Stadion Central'nyj im. Uktama Mamatova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Istiqlol72%

×Draw17%

Khatlon11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchKhatlon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.75

Istiqlol

2.30

Khatlon

0.75

Istiqlol creates 207% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

3.20

creates per match

0.97

0.53

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Istiqlol

3.20

Khatlon

0.97

allows per match

Istiqlol

0.53

Khatlon

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Khatlon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

89%

Istiqlol or Khatlon

83%

Draw or Khatlon

28%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

48%

Khatlon wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

90%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

67%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

40%

Khatlon 1+ goals

53%

Khatlon 2+ goals

17%

Khatlon 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

87%

Khatlon (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

Khatlon away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.40 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.20 + Khatlon defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.30

Khatlon attack 0.97 + Istiqlol defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Istiqlol scores more

72%

level

17%

Khatlon scores more

11%

Istiqlol at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff