Khatlon 0–1 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Khatlon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Istiqlol

M. Millar 31'

8/10/2024

Vysshaya Liga · Round 13Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Khatlon24%

×Draw26%

Istiqlol51%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhatlonExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.54

Khatlon

0.97

Istiqlol

1.54

Istiqlol creates 59% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 32 away

1.31

creates per match

2.16

0.92

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Khatlon

1.31

Istiqlol

2.16

allows per match

Khatlon

0.92

Istiqlol

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw

49%

Khatlon or Istiqlol

74%

Draw or Istiqlol

76%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+

8%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals

62%

Khatlon 2+ goals

25%

Khatlon 3+ goals

7%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

79%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

45%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)

32%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.31 + Istiqlol defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.97

Istiqlol attack 2.16 + Khatlon defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Khatlon scores more

24%

level

26%

Istiqlol scores more

51%

Istiqlol at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. Millar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff