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Tevragh-Zeïne vs Ksar — Premier League 2020

Tevragh-Zeïne
Tevragh-Zeïne
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ksar
Ksar
12/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Tevragh-Zeïne53%
×Draw27%
Ksar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tevragh-Zeïne
1.45
Ksar
0.77

Tevragh-Zeïne creates 88% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 78 away

creates per match

Tevragh-Zeïne
1.56
Ksar
0.86

allows per match

Tevragh-Zeïne
0.69
Ksar
1.33

finishing

Tevragh-Zeïne+0.00on par
Ksar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tevragh-Zeïne ↓

Ksar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tevragh-Zeïne or draw
80%
Tevragh-Zeïne or Ksar
73%
Draw or Ksar
47%

Winning margin

Tevragh-Zeïne wins by 2+
27%
Ksar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tevragh-Zeïne 1+ goals
77%
Tevragh-Zeïne 2+ goals
42%
Tevragh-Zeïne 3+ goals
18%
Ksar 1+ goals
54%
Ksar 2+ goals
18%
Ksar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tevragh-Zeïne (draw refunded)
73%
Ksar (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tevragh-Zeïne at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.69 · 78 matches

Ksar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tevragh-Zeïne attack 1.56 + Ksar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ksar attack 0.86 + Tevragh-Zeïne defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tevragh-Zeïne scores more
53%
level
27%
Ksar scores more
20%

Tevragh-Zeïne at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tevragh-Zeïne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tevragh-Zeïne 1–0 Ksar

Tevragh-Zeïne beat Ksar 1-0 in Premier League on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Nouakchott in Nouakchott.