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Tevragh-Zeïne vs Gourel Sangue — Premier League 2020

Tevragh-Zeïne
Tevragh-Zeïne
FT
6 – 1
Gourel Sangue
Gourel Sangue
11/8/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tevragh-Zeïne74%
×Draw16%
Gourel Sangue10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tevragh-Zeïne
2.40
Gourel Sangue
0.73

Tevragh-Zeïne creates 229% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tevragh-Zeïne
1.56
Gourel Sangue
0.77

allows per match

Tevragh-Zeïne
0.69
Gourel Sangue
3.23

finishing

Tevragh-Zeïne+0.00on par
Gourel Sangue+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tevragh-Zeïne ↓

Gourel Sangue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tevragh-Zeïne or draw
90%
Tevragh-Zeïne or Gourel Sangue
84%
Draw or Gourel Sangue
26%

Winning margin

Tevragh-Zeïne wins by 2+
51%
Gourel Sangue wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tevragh-Zeïne 1+ goals
91%
Tevragh-Zeïne 2+ goals
69%
Tevragh-Zeïne 3+ goals
42%
Gourel Sangue 1+ goals
52%
Gourel Sangue 2+ goals
17%
Gourel Sangue 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tevragh-Zeïne (draw refunded)
89%
Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tevragh-Zeïne at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.69 · 78 matches

Gourel Sangue away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tevragh-Zeïne attack 1.56 + Gourel Sangue defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.40

Gourel Sangue attack 0.77 + Tevragh-Zeïne defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Tevragh-Zeïne scores more
74%
level
16%
Gourel Sangue scores more
10%

Tevragh-Zeïne at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Tevragh-Zeïne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tevragh-Zeïne 6–1 Gourel Sangue

Tevragh-Zeïne beat Gourel Sangue 6-1 in Premier League on November 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Nouakchott in Nouakchott.