Teutonia Weiden 4–1 Hürth: Result & Stats

Teutonia Weiden

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hürth

9/22/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5Jupp-Derwall-Stadion - Rasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Teutonia Weiden30%

×Draw20%

Hürth50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teutonia WeidenExpected goals in this matchHürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

2.32

Teutonia Weiden

1.76

Hürth

2.32

Hürth creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

1.50

creates per match

1.41

3.23

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Teutonia Weiden

1.50

Hürth

1.41

allows per match

Teutonia Weiden

3.23

Hürth

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teutonia Weiden+0.00on par

Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia Weiden ↓

Hürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Teutonia Weiden or draw

50%

Teutonia Weiden or Hürth

80%

Draw or Hürth

70%

Winning margin

Teutonia Weiden wins by 2+

15%

Hürth wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Teutonia Weiden 1+ goals

83%

Teutonia Weiden 2+ goals

52%

Teutonia Weiden 3+ goals

26%

Hürth 1+ goals

90%

Hürth 2+ goals

67%

Hürth 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Teutonia Weiden (draw refunded)

37%

Hürth (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia Weiden at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.23 · 30 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia Weiden attack 1.50 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.76

Hürth attack 1.41 + Teutonia Weiden defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Teutonia Weiden scores more

30%

level

20%

Hürth scores more

50%

Hürth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff