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Teutonia St.Tönis vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
CANC
13:30
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
4/5/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 34Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis51%
×Draw23%
TVD Velbert27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.88
TVD Velbert
1.31

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 44% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 72 away

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.70
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.25
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw
73%
Teutonia St.Tönis or TVD Velbert
77%
Draw or TVD Velbert
49%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
28%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
85%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
56%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
29%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
73%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
38%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
65%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
51%
level
23%
TVD Velbert scores more
27%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teutonia St.Tönis vs TVD Velbert — Match Preview

Teutonia St.Tönis face TVD Velbert on April 5, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Teutonia St.Tönis host TVD Velbert at Jahn-Sport-Anlage.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.