Teutonia St.Tönis 0–1 TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

Teutonia St.Tönis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

12/18/2021

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 17Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis51%

×Draw23%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teutonia St.TönisExpected goals in this matchTuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.23

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.82

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.23

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 48% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

1.70

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.70

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.20

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.25

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw

74%

Teutonia St.Tönis or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

77%

Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

49%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+

28%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals

84%

Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals

54%

Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals

27%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals

71%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals

35%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)

66%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.82

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more

51%

level

23%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more

26%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff