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Teutonia St.Tönis vs Sterkrade-Nord — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
CANC
18:30
Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
11/5/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 12Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis57%
×Draw20%
Sterkrade-Nord23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teutonia St.Tönis
2.27
Sterkrade-Nord
1.40

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 62% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.70
Sterkrade-Nord
1.55

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.25
Sterkrade-Nord
2.85

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par
Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

Sterkrade-Nord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw
77%
Teutonia St.Tönis or Sterkrade-Nord
80%
Draw or Sterkrade-Nord
43%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
35%
Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
90%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
66%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
39%
Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
75%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
41%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
71%
Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Sterkrade-Nord away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.27

Sterkrade-Nord attack 1.55 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
57%
level
20%
Sterkrade-Nord scores more
23%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Teutonia St.Tönis host Sterkrade-Nord

November 5, 2020: Teutonia St.Tönis take on Sterkrade-Nord in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Teutonia St.Tönis host Sterkrade-Nord at Jahn-Sport-Anlage.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.