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Teutonia St.Tönis vs Kray — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kray
Kray
4/3/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 1Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Teutonia St.Tönis59%
×Draw21%
Kray20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teutonia St.Tönis
2.09
Kray
1.13

Teutonia St.Tönis creates 85% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

creates per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.70
Kray
1.00

allows per match

Teutonia St.Tönis
1.25
Kray
2.48

finishing

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par
Kray+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teutonia St.Tönis ↓

Kray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Teutonia St.Tönis or draw
80%
Teutonia St.Tönis or Kray
79%
Draw or Kray
41%

Winning margin

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
36%
Kray wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
88%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
62%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
34%
Kray 1+ goals
68%
Kray 2+ goals
31%
Kray 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
75%
Kray (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teutonia St.Tönis at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Kray away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.70 + Kray defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.09

Kray attack 1.00 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
59%
level
21%
Kray scores more
20%

Teutonia St.Tönis at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Teutonia St.Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Teutonia St.Tönis 3–0 Kray

Teutonia St.Tönis beat Kray 3-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Jahn-Sport-Anlage in Tönisvorst.