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Teuta Durrës vs Tirana — Superliga 2018

Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tirana
Tirana
1/19/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 20Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Teuta Durrës35%
×Draw29%
Tirana35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teuta Durrës
1.10
Tirana
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 146 home / 144 away

creates per match

Teuta Durrës
1.13
Tirana
1.34

allows per match

Teuta Durrës
0.86
Tirana
1.08

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par
Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw
65%
Teuta Durrës or Tirana
71%
Draw or Tirana
65%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
14%
Tirana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
67%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
30%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
10%
Tirana 1+ goals
67%
Tirana 2+ goals
30%
Tirana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
50%
Tirana (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.86 · 146 matches

Tirana away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.13 + Tirana defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tirana attack 1.34 + Teuta Durrës defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more
35%
level
29%
Tirana scores more
35%

Teuta Durrës at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teuta Durrës vs Tirana

Teuta Durrës and Tirana drew 2-2 in Superliga on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana in Durrës.