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Teuta Durrës vs FK Ventspils — UEFA Europa League 2018

Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
7/18/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 1st Qualifying RoundStadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Teuta Durrës52%
×Draw22%
FK Ventspils26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teuta Durrës
1.90
FK Ventspils
1.27

Teuta Durrës creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Teuta Durrës
1.00
FK Ventspils
1.20

allows per match

Teuta Durrës
1.33
FK Ventspils
2.80

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par
FK Ventspils+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

FK Ventspils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw
74%
Teuta Durrës or FK Ventspils
78%
Draw or FK Ventspils
48%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
30%
FK Ventspils wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
85%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
56%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
29%
FK Ventspils 1+ goals
72%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
36%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
67%
FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

FK Ventspils away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.00 + FK Ventspils defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

FK Ventspils attack 1.20 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more
52%
level
22%
FK Ventspils scores more
26%

Teuta Durrës at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teuta Durrës vs FK Ventspils

Teuta Durrës beat FK Ventspils 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on July 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana in Durrës.