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Teuta Durrës vs FK Kukesi — Superliga 2018

Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
9/9/2022SuperligaSuperliga · Round 4Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Teuta Durrës40%
×Draw29%
FK Kukesi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teuta Durrës
1.21
FK Kukesi
1.04

Teuta Durrës creates 16% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 108 away

creates per match

Teuta Durrës
1.13
FK Kukesi
1.22

allows per match

Teuta Durrës
0.86
FK Kukesi
1.30

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par
FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

FK Kukesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw
69%
Teuta Durrës or FK Kukesi
71%
Draw or FK Kukesi
60%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
17%
FK Kukesi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
70%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
34%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
12%
FK Kukesi 1+ goals
65%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
28%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
56%
FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.86 · 146 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.30 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.13 + FK Kukesi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Kukesi attack 1.22 + Teuta Durrës defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more
40%
level
29%
FK Kukesi scores more
31%

Teuta Durrës at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Teuta Durrës 0–0 FK Kukesi

Teuta Durrës and FK Kukesi drew 0-0 in Superliga on September 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana in Durrës.