FK Kukesi 0–2 Teuta Durrës: Result & Stats

FK Kukesi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Teuta Durrës

4/28/2024

Superliga · Round 33Kukës Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

FK Kukesi41%

×Draw30%

Teuta Durrës30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK KukesiExpected goals in this matchTeuta Durrës

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.94

FK Kukesi

1.16

Teuta Durrës

0.94

FK Kukesi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 144 away

1.19

creates per match

0.93

0.95

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

FK Kukesi

1.19

Teuta Durrës

0.93

allows per match

FK Kukesi

0.95

Teuta Durrës

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Teuta Durrës →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw

70%

FK Kukesi or Teuta Durrës

70%

Draw or Teuta Durrës

59%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+

17%

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals

69%

FK Kukesi 2+ goals

32%

FK Kukesi 3+ goals

11%

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

61%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

24%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)

58%

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.95 · 108 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.19 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + FK Kukesi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Kukesi scores more

41%

level

30%

Teuta Durrës scores more

30%

FK Kukesi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff