Teuta Durrës 1–0 Bylis: Result & Stats | Superliga

Teuta Durrës

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bylis

10/5/2025

Superliga · Round 6Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Teuta Durrës48%

×Draw27%

Bylis25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teuta DurrësExpected goals in this matchBylis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.90

Teuta Durrës

1.38

Bylis

0.90

Teuta Durrës creates 53% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 93 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Teuta Durrës

1.15

Bylis

0.94

allows per match

Teuta Durrës

0.86

Bylis

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Bylis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

Bylis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw

75%

Teuta Durrës or Bylis

73%

Draw or Bylis

52%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

23%

Bylis wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

75%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

40%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

16%

Bylis 1+ goals

59%

Bylis 2+ goals

23%

Bylis 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

66%

Bylis (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 146 matches

Bylis away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.15 + Bylis defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bylis attack 0.94 + Teuta Durrës defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more

48%

level

27%

Bylis scores more

25%

Teuta Durrës at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff