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Teungueth vs Jamono Fatick — Ligue 1 2019

Teungueth
Teungueth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jamono Fatick
Jamono Fatick
10/28/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Ngalandou Diouf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Teungueth48%
×Draw31%
Jamono Fatick21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teungueth
1.19
Jamono Fatick
0.68

Teungueth creates 75% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 28 away

creates per match

Teungueth
1.17
Jamono Fatick
0.79

allows per match

Teungueth
0.57
Jamono Fatick
1.21

finishing

Teungueth+0.00on par
Jamono Fatick+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teungueth ↓

Jamono Fatick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Teungueth or draw
79%
Teungueth or Jamono Fatick
69%
Draw or Jamono Fatick
52%

Winning margin

Teungueth wins by 2+
21%
Jamono Fatick wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Teungueth 1+ goals
70%
Teungueth 2+ goals
33%
Teungueth 3+ goals
12%
Jamono Fatick 1+ goals
49%
Jamono Fatick 2+ goals
15%
Jamono Fatick 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Teungueth (draw refunded)
70%
Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teungueth at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Jamono Fatick away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teungueth attack 1.17 + Jamono Fatick defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Jamono Fatick attack 0.79 + Teungueth defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Teungueth scores more
48%
level
31%
Jamono Fatick scores more
21%

Teungueth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Teungueth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teungueth vs Jamono Fatick

Teungueth beat Jamono Fatick 2-1 in Ligue 1 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ngalandou Diouf in Rufisque.